tryr6756
0xa6d532bceb5e50b62826e2783a72909a1c24a7f2
- Realised P&L
- $-37.26
- Volume
- $12.2k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $90.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? · No | 0.956 | 0.965 | $63.66 | +$0.56 |
| Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.986 | 0.995 | $14.92 | +$0.13 |
| Will Xavier Bertrand advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No | 0.997 | 0.947 | $6.63 | −$0.35 |
| Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $4.99 | +$0.00 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.00at 0.700Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24?
- +$4.57at 0.840German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
- +$3.53at 0.985Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31?
- +$2.59at 0.992Xi Jinping out before October?
- +$1.89at 0.995Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 13:56 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.99 |
| 10-09 12:56 | Will Xavier Bertrand advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.997 | $6.98 |
| 10-09 12:54 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $19.84 |
| 10-09 12:53 | Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.956 | $63.10 |
| 09-09 12:56 | Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.986 | $14.79 |
| 09-09 12:56 | Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $49.90 |
| 08-11 10:49 | Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $5.98 |
| 08-11 10:49 | Trump out as President by August 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $125.50 |
| 07-20 09:43 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.976 | $6.83 |
| 07-15 14:29 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.99 |
| 07-15 14:28 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $191.23 |
| 06-17 12:32 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 06-06 08:22 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.98 |
| 06-06 08:21 | Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 06-06 08:20 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? | BUY | 0.999 | $340.66 |