argrefgaer
0xa6ca25eef2da3c55934cb40be43556c7c3b5cbdd
- Realised P&L
- $-83.94
- Volume
- $10.3k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $0.28
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Johnnie LaRossa win The Bachelorette Season 22? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.004 | $0.28 | −$30.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.76at 0.500Will Johnnie LaRossa win The Bachelorette Season 22?
- +$2.47at 0.680Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.57at 0.480FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to Score
- +$0.07at 0.999Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C or below on March 24?
- +$0.05at 0.999Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 7°C on March 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-29 23:54 | Will Dreamcash launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $85.72 |
| 03-29 22:44 | Will Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.62 | $108.66 |
| 03-29 22:30 | New York City FC vs. Charlotte FC: O/U 2.5 | SELL | 0.5 | $84.35 |
| 03-29 15:07 | Will Trump say "Paper Clip" in April? | SELL | 0.55 | $89.48 |
| 03-29 07:19 | Will Blaublitz Akita vs. Yokohama FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.52 | $99.17 |
| 03-29 07:15 | Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-04-19? | SELL | 0.52 | $89.84 |
| 03-29 05:33 | Tochigi SC vs. SC Sagamihara: O/U 3.5 | SELL | 0.5 | $102.81 |
| 03-29 04:49 | Will Enzo Maresca be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? | SELL | 0.86 | $171.35 |
| 03-29 00:50 | Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $95.28 |
| 03-28 12:10 | Spread: Inter Miami CF (-2.5) | SELL | 0.5 | $93.89 |
| 03-28 08:07 | Will Lucas Bartlett win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year? | SELL | 0.821 | $147.92 |
| 03-28 03:22 | Will Amazon dip to $168 in April? | SELL | 0.63 | $117.73 |
| 03-28 03:15 | Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) | SELL | 0.49 | $84.02 |
| 03-28 02:17 | Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC win on 2026-04-19? | SELL | 0.73 | $125.95 |
| 03-27 09:42 | Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.63 | $63.08 |