PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Celimonxx

0xa6c4b7a37435b252e00e956308245aaec7fe78a7

Realised P&L
$-42.75
Volume
$9.8k
Markets traded
16
Open portfolio
$2.25

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded16
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
Not knownProfit concentration
No settled positions sampled.
Not knownSettled sample0 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
CautionOpen concentration55.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0020.001$1.25$3.75
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.0020.002$0.75$0.25
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0020.001$0.25$0.75
Will "Ult" or "Ultimate" be said 15+ times during the Valorant Masters Grand Finals? · No0.0010.000$0.00$1.00
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? · No0.0050.000$0.00$1.00
Will "Opera" be said at the Oscars? · No0.0030.000$0.00$1.00
Will "Charlie Kirk" be said at the Oscars? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00$2.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET · Down0.2740.000$0.00$41.05
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET · Down0.4520.000$0.00$6.20
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Arcade Esports (BO1) - ANZC Locals Brisbane: Playoffs · Arcade Esports0.0010.000$0.00$1.00
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the Oscars? · No0.0050.000$0.00$1.00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00$1.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET · Down0.3050.000$0.00$38.09
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00$1.00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0040.000$0.00$1.00

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-05 00:27Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.002$1.00
09-05 00:26Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.002$5.00
09-05 00:16Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.002$1.00
05-07 14:08Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7?BUY0.0099981822$10.00
03-17 00:53Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs Arcade Esports (BO1) - ANZC Locals Brisbane: PlayoffsBUY0.001$1.00
03-17 00:53Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?BUY0.001$1.00
03-17 00:52Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?BUY0.005$1.00
03-17 00:52Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?BUY0.004$1.00
03-17 00:52Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?BUY0.001$1.00
03-17 00:46Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ETBUY0.359999977$4.87
03-16 00:20Will "Ult" or "Ultimate" be said 15+ times during the Valorant Masters Grand Finals?BUY0.001$1.00
03-16 00:17Will "Opera" be said at the Oscars?BUY0.003$1.00
03-16 00:16Will "Charlie Kirk" be said at the Oscars?BUY0.119999952$2.00
03-16 00:15Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the Oscars?BUY0.005$1.00
03-16 00:02Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ETBUY0.08$9.97