pikers
0xa6a445baca52f99b7c2f16cd90b7e51c23b43431
- Realised P&L
- $-369.17
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $12.22
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-15.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1win FDV above $30M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.930 | 1.000 | $12.22 | +$0.85 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? · No | 0.276 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$37.89at 0.760Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?
- +$1.78at 0.942Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- +$1.15at 0.981Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?
- +$0.99at 0.981Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?
- +$0.95at 0.994US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 20:39 | 1win FDV above $30M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9299999583 | $11.37 |
| 09-28 19:28 | US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $11.30 |
| 09-28 19:22 | Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $8.90 |
| 09-28 19:19 | Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31? | BUY | 0.98 | $51.00 |
| 09-28 19:18 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.9389999999 | $28.80 |
| 08-30 22:24 | Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.98 | $59.40 |
| 08-30 22:23 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.996999997 | $100.00 |
| 05-31 19:35 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $158.00 |
| 04-28 12:49 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.9979999941 | $158.20 |
| 03-29 16:50 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $157.89 |
| 11-26 10:36 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.7599999995 | $120.00 |
| 11-26 10:32 | Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | BUY | 0.2759999996 | $400.00 |