0xac8db3b4afea21b73ffdc92fjk
0xa67209aaa09ba891adb7d291310e49914472f083
- Realised P&L
- $-122.3k
- Volume
- $19.93M
- Markets traded
- 393
- Open portfolio
- $42.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded393
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.595 | $41.9k | +$11.6k |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.660 | 0.885 | $460.05 | +$116.96 |
| Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? · No | 0.481 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$605.80 |
| Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? · Yes | 0.275 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.9k |
| Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.02 |
| Over $200M committed to the Ranger public sale? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · No | 0.833 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.3k |
| Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$251.98 |
| Over $180M committed to the Ranger public sale? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$362.26 |
| Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$940.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$106.9kat 0.607Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$20.2kat 0.493Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$17.0kat 0.940Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$10.2kat 0.791Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?
- +$9.9kat 0.751Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-08 00:31 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? | BUY | 0.99 | $391.15 |
| 01-06 10:52 | Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.93 | $17.7k |
| 01-06 10:35 | Over $200M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.0857397718 | $1.5k |
| 01-06 10:23 | Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.6753066667 | $12.2k |
| 01-06 09:40 | Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.6438744444 | $2.9k |
| 01-06 09:35 | Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? | BUY | 0.2754594828 | $4.9k |
| 12-30 09:52 | Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? | BUY | 0.65931524 | $1.6k |
| 12-30 08:59 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.94 | $9.1k |
| 12-30 08:46 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.91 | $207.67 |
| 12-30 07:11 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.71 | $3.5k |
| 12-30 07:10 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.72 | $3.6k |
| 12-30 05:45 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.79 | $4.0k |
| 12-30 04:48 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.89092972 | $8.9k |
| 12-30 02:25 | Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? | BUY | 0.4809904644 | $605.80 |
| 12-29 04:26 | Bears vs. 49ers | SELL | 0.4619829317 | $368.11 |