0xa64012d113b984fbe36b384b07fd8e31873e0f66
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $178.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 · No | 0.760 | 0.981 | $98.10 | +$22.10 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.963 | $77.04 | +$10.64 |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.001 | $3.38 | −$37.16 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? · Yes | 0.628 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes | 0.136 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.71at 0.830Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$9.00at 0.910Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?
- +$7.73at 0.740Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?
- +$7.53at 0.930MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
- +$6.85at 0.863Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22 02:46 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $66.40 |
| 10-22 02:46 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9680714286 | $67.77 |
| 10-09 14:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.967 | $67.69 |
| 06-12 08:26 | Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $40.54 |
| 06-12 08:26 | Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 | BUY | 0.76 | $76.00 |
| 06-12 08:25 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.41 | $45.92 |
| 03-31 17:28 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.77 | $86.24 |
| 01-27 14:57 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.993 | $21.00 |
| 12-28 09:11 | Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million? | BUY | 0.91 | $91.00 |
| 12-28 09:09 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999997 | $100.00 |
| 12-28 09:09 | Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.001 | $4.85 |
| 11-13 18:29 | Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.003 | $14.55 |
| 10-30 02:52 | Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.004 | $25.16 |
| 10-30 02:50 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.992 | $113.00 |
| 10-06 02:40 | Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.136 | $6.80 |