kamizake
0xa635379a20dd424d72f7d5b4c41bf9e1c95b0e91
- Realised P&L
- $-283.02
- Volume
- $16.9k
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $40.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.810 | 0.959 | $19.18 | +$2.98 |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Israel by December 31? · No | 0.940 | 0.968 | $14.52 | +$0.42 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed run 0 to 3 points behind Jocelyn Benson? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.255 | $3.83 | −$0.07 |
| Will Trump say "Peach" or "Pecan" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.330 | $3.30 | +$1.70 |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs · Team Falcons | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$35.32at 0.040Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
- +$28.00at 0.720Will Vitality win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?
- +$20.00at 0.800Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$20.00at 0.800Grizzlies vs. Rockets
- +$18.00at 0.820Nets vs. Knicks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 02:08 | Will Trump say "Peach" or "Pecan" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.60 |
| 10-14 05:09 | Will Abdul El-Sayed run 0 to 3 points behind Jocelyn Benson? | BUY | 0.26 | $3.90 |
| 10-14 03:05 | Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $14.10 |
| 05-17 08:19 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs | BUY | 0.4 | $20.00 |
| 03-16 03:05 | ChatGPT Outage by March 15? | SELL | 0.0075586667 | $0.23 |
| 03-03 14:15 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.08111 | $1.62 |
| 03-03 13:13 | Will Iran strike one country in March? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.10 |
| 03-03 12:52 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | BUY | 0.546 | $2.73 |
| 03-03 00:33 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $16.20 |
| 03-01 13:08 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 | BUY | 0.46 | $4.60 |
| 03-01 09:48 | Will Iran strike Israel on March 1? | BUY | 0.088 | $1.06 |
| 03-01 09:15 | Will Iran strike seven countries in March? | BUY | 0.79 | $15.80 |
| 03-01 09:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | SELL | 0.93 | $6.12 |
| 03-01 09:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | BUY | 0.4485049605 | $2.91 |
| 03-01 04:40 | Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.54 | $10.80 |