Applep
0xa626d00f451d90df89894c0ee5199432fdcd96a0
- Realised P&L
- $-41.35
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $80.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)23.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.20at 0.140NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.130Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
- +$4.85at 0.258Will Democrats win exactly 9 House seats in Michigan in the 2026 midterm elections?
- +$4.40at 0.280Will Zcash reach $1300 by December 31, 2026?
- +$4.01at 0.299Will Northwestern have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 04:54 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027? | SELL | 0.53 | $10.60 |
| 09-17 04:54 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 650,000 and 700,000? | SELL | 0.71 | $14.20 |
| 09-16 22:28 | Will more than 600,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31? | SELL | 0.61 | $12.20 |
| 09-16 22:24 | Will the season series between the Texans and Jaguars end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.53 | $5.30 |
| 09-16 22:24 | Will the Broncos win the season series against the Raiders during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.36 | $9.00 |
| 09-16 22:23 | Will Françoise Faverjon-Fortin win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election? | SELL | 0.5065208648 | $10.07 |
| 09-16 22:23 | Will Patrick Paquet win the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election? | SELL | 0.66 | $13.20 |
| 09-16 22:23 | Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027? | SELL | 0.65 | $13.00 |
| 09-16 11:03 | Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4-4.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? | BUY | 0.4099999934 | $4.38 |
| 09-16 10:40 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.80 |
| 09-16 10:38 | Will Kyren Williams have 9.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 09-16 10:37 | Will the season series between the Ravens and Steelers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.55 | $13.75 |
| 09-16 10:35 | Will Northwestern have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? | BUY | 0.2889999989 | $5.77 |
| 09-16 10:35 | Will UCF have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? | BUY | 0.55 | $11.00 |
| 09-16 10:31 | Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027? | BUY | 0.34 | $6.80 |