chillyflix
0xa57fb456ac53e76ca311f1395bf3ae5df8399ea3
- Realised P&L
- $-9.74
- Volume
- $440.57
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $113.67
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.496 | 0.785 | $82.27 | +$30.27 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.380 | $27.12 | −$2.88 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.225 | $4.29 | +$0.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.65at 0.913Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$4.16at 0.894Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$-18.56at 0.704Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 18:44 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4203821619 | $30.00 |
| 09-29 05:45 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $4.00 |
| 09-27 17:51 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999992 | $34.94 |
| 09-27 17:51 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $35.82 |
| 09-26 06:31 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.6950728843 | $52.98 |
| 09-15 14:54 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999994 | $48.83 |
| 09-08 16:37 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4961832061 | $52.00 |