0xa55174bffbb8fe0e7da637a5531ba56f65963ca9
0xa55174bffbb8fe0e7da637a5531ba56f65963ca9
- Realised P&L
- $4.30
- Volume
- $151.43
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $6.12
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.6B? · No | 0.600 | 0.720 | $1.20 | +$0.20 |
| Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.430 | $1.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.610 | 0.650 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.425 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.495 | $0.95 | −$0.05 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.375 | $0.83 | −$0.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.227Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $502.50 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$3.14at 0.247Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$2.70at 0.270Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 26, 2026?
- +$1.68at 0.379Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $181 Week of September 28 2026?
- +$1.54at 0.400Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 18:54 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 10:53 | Will Citigroup (C) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $2.6B? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 01:23 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:08 | Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 10:37 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 02:37 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 06:26 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $70 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 22:22 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 21:33 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 12:17 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 02:08 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,140 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 18:08 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 05:46 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 2? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 16:33 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 08:29 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |