0xA54a4FdB8FdDf3b5b3cF0BFf4131268d199eFb00-1764830068960
0xa54a4fdb8fddf3b5b3cf0bff4131268d199efb00
- Realised P&L
- $-55.70
- Volume
- $29.2k
- Markets traded
- 117
- Open portfolio
- $180.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded117
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.239 | 0.180 | $180.13 | −$58.83 |
| Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.005 | $0.15 | +$0.00 |
| Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$0.51 |
| Will Sol Vega win Big Brother Brasil 26? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.71 |
| Will Maxiane Rodrigues win Big Brother Brasil 26? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bruno Fernandes be the player with the most assists in the 2025–26 English Premier League season? · No | 0.133 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.12 |
| Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 · Under | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$82.06at 0.019Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?
- +$24.10at 0.277S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 4?
- +$18.81at 0.300Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 5?
- +$14.10at 0.875José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31?
- +$9.44at 0.490Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-10 20:51 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.995 | $99.50 |
| 06-10 20:50 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.995 | $99.50 |
| 06-07 19:30 | Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 06-03 22:19 | Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? | BUY | 0.995 | $199.00 |
| 06-01 22:45 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $42.52 |
| 06-01 16:41 | Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.952 | $23.80 |
| 05-27 20:03 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in May? | BUY | 0.991 | $49.55 |
| 05-26 22:25 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY | 0.975 | $19.50 |
| 05-26 22:23 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY | 0.973 | $19.46 |
| 04-29 12:07 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $340 end of April? | BUY | 0.99 | $7.42 |
| 04-17 22:02 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? | BUY | 0.943 | $6.85 |
| 04-17 10:32 | Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.18 |
| 04-17 10:32 | Will Chris Holder be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.55 |
| 04-17 10:31 | Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.006 | $1.92 |
| 04-17 10:31 | Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0212967066 | $4.27 |