ObscuraNull
0xa53d323139566d992c4613b8225670365f864952
- Realised P&L
- $0.89
- Volume
- $14.8k
- Markets traded
- 168
- Open portfolio
- $327.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded168
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.29at 0.120Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$12.26at 0.620Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
- +$12.00at 0.294AWS service disrupted by March 31?
- +$10.62at 0.826Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
- +$9.78at 0.662Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 15:17 | Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? | BUY | 0.4399999754 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 15:15 | Will Jenny Steen be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County? | BUY | 0.4689999917 | $5.00 |
| 09-21 16:18 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.4399999754 | $5.00 |
| 08-19 11:24 | Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |
| 08-19 11:24 | Will Brenda Locke win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election? | BUY | 0.4179104309 | $10.00 |
| 08-19 04:41 | Will Ulf Prange win the next Oldenburg mayoral election? | BUY | 0.529999965 | $5.00 |
| 08-19 04:40 | Will Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5399999654 | $5.00 |
| 08-19 04:40 | Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $10.00 |
| 08-19 04:39 | Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |
| 08-19 04:39 | Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.6699998727 | $5.00 |
| 08-19 04:38 | Will Cilliers Brink be the next mayor of Tshwane? | BUY | 0.6199999628 | $5.00 |
| 08-19 04:38 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 08-19 04:37 | Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? | BUY | 0.6499999675 | $5.00 |
| 07-23 15:25 | Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | SELL | 0.91 | $2.24 |
| 07-14 03:16 | Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? | BUY | 0.7199998618 | $5.00 |