0xa51e42cc59a3d7b4d49d055fdb567788816c4c81
- Realised P&L
- $-0.28
- Volume
- $86.76
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $12.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.610 | 0.815 | $2.48 | +$0.62 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.825 | $2.12 | +$0.12 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.625 | $2.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.340 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · No | 0.560 | 0.555 | $1.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.415 | $1.28 | −$0.72 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.022 | $0.20 | −$1.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.87at 0.510Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?
- +$1.69at 0.540S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 22?
- +$1.04at 0.660Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
- +$0.90at 0.690Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$0.78at 0.720Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 08:22 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:22 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:21 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.619999969 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:20 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 21:54 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 13:42 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:11 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599998949 | $2.01 |
| 08-01 04:11 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:11 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999689 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 20:10 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999281 | $1.56 |
| 07-31 12:10 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.83 |
| 07-28 16:56 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199997408 | $2.00 |
| 07-27 19:32 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-27 06:06 | Will Trump say "Forever" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.90 |
| 07-26 18:06 | Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.43 | $1.29 |