51lemons
0xa51cf947f429ec942e5fcb26d4e3a4d436a7db68
- Realised P&L
- $1.8k
- Volume
- $298.3k
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $18.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? · No | 0.734 | 1.000 | $7.2k | +$1.9k |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.850 | 0.960 | $5.6k | +$644.12 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.831 | 0.972 | $1.8k | +$254.13 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.570 | 0.935 | $1.6k | +$640.57 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.961 | $1.5k | +$455.30 |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.028 | $687.50 | −$611.85 |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.788 | 1.000 | $380.71 | +$80.71 |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.001 | $15.47 | −$1.3k |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$299.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.894Maduro out in 2025?
- +$1.6kat 0.900Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
- +$1.3kat 0.388Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$1.1kat 0.958Maduro out by November 30, 2025?
- +$1.0kat 0.725US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-01 02:03 | Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | SELL | 0.001 | $1.11 |
| 03-01 02:00 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.002 | $4.00 |
| 02-20 22:22 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.0k |
| 02-20 01:04 | Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.75 | $300.00 |
| 02-20 00:33 | US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $310.00 |
| 02-15 22:00 | Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand? | SELL | 0.003 | $1.61 |
| 02-15 21:59 | Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.50 |
| 01-29 01:12 | No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7879999996 | $300.00 |
| 01-29 01:08 | Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand? | BUY | 0.2118599182 | $50.00 |
| 01-22 02:36 | Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party? | BUY | 0.9003429008 | $500.00 |
| 01-22 02:33 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $500.00 |
| 01-22 02:20 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.04 | $105.26 |
| 01-22 02:09 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999998 | $1000.00 |
| 01-09 01:42 | Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.956212941 | $500.00 |
| 01-09 01:39 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.3799999998 | $1000.00 |