donald62
0xa4f7b80ad392444553b2d9e320e91cf1d7732d11
- Realised P&L
- $-13.20
- Volume
- $23.4k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $113.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on November 3? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.775 | $30.36 | +$6.07 |
| Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.850 | $25.50 | +$4.80 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 15%-18%? · No | 0.827 | 0.705 | $19.85 | −$3.44 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 25%-30%? · No | 0.824 | 0.868 | $17.36 | +$0.88 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026? · No | 0.540 | 1.000 | $12.22 | +$5.62 |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.765 | $8.14 | +$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.60at 0.540Pan Pacific Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Maya Joint
- +$6.88at 0.670Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- +$5.79at 0.630W15 Cipolletti: Camila Markus vs Sofia Meabe
- +$0.41at 0.975OpenAI browser in July?
- +$0.35at 0.977Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 04:08 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999656 | $6.60 |
| 01-31 13:44 | Will Chainlink hit $15 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.82 |
| 01-31 13:24 | Will Hyperliquid hit $38 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.00 |
| 01-30 15:52 | Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.04 |
| 01-30 15:21 | Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.86 |
| 01-30 13:11 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in January? | BUY | 0.9989459565 | $40.85 |
| 12-30 09:08 | Maduro out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9949999352 | $10.52 |
| 12-30 01:33 | Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979998524 | $3.61 |
| 12-29 22:18 | Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.14 |
| 12-29 21:26 | Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999987 | $26.94 |
| 12-29 20:04 | Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? | BUY | 0.9990000001 | $33.97 |
| 10-31 00:10 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.00 |
| 10-30 19:30 | Will Solana dip to $120 in October? | BUY | 0.9989999767 | $26.36 |
| 09-29 17:28 | Lisa Cook arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.997999961 | $17.05 |
| 09-29 02:45 | Will Solana reach $350 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.54 |