Billy9028
0xa4f478e9a5f49f0b3064d4b98e21df8774d0cd48
- Realised P&L
- $-699.13
- Volume
- $88.3k
- Markets traded
- 3,005
- Open portfolio
- $31.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,005
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration37.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$172.22at 0.042Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5PM ET
- +$123.74at 0.225Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10AM ET
- +$70.25at 0.682Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 11AM ET
- +$63.38at 0.468Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 12PM ET
- +$52.56at 0.584Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 11:44 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | SELL | 0.82 | $39.02 |
| 11-01 07:15 | Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.794 | $15.88 |
| 11-01 06:50 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | SELL | 0.93 | $46.50 |
| 10-31 17:26 | Government shutdown by December 31? | SELL | 0.45 | $43.77 |
| 10-31 12:17 | Tusk out by December 31? | SELL | 0.93 | $18.35 |
| 10-31 05:58 | Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | SELL | 0.59 | $8.85 |
| 10-27 16:42 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000? | SELL | 0.3436 | $6.87 |
| 10-27 15:15 | Will no one dissent the December Fed decision? | SELL | 0.28 | $5.60 |
| 10-27 13:39 | Will Amcha Yisrael win less than 2.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? | SELL | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 10-27 13:12 | Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31? | SELL | 0.403 | $8.06 |
| 10-27 12:06 | Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31? | SELL | 0.346 | $6.92 |
| 10-27 10:06 | Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $8.00 |
| 10-26 01:43 | Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7? | SELL | 0.27 | $5.40 |
| 10-25 22:59 | Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $5.39 |
| 10-25 19:11 | Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $2.40 |