shanguo
0xa4efbc402d1291ef0f24b5eb1b05b0a7e11a6544
- Realised P&L
- $-74.43
- Volume
- $12.5k
- Markets traded
- 231
- Open portfolio
- $5.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded231
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)4.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nermin Nikšić be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.046 | $5.69 | −$33.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.44at 0.736Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
- +$5.44at 0.718Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9AM ET
- +$4.71at 0.722Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1PM ET
- +$4.62at 0.745Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9PM ET
- +$4.12at 0.745Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 04:52 | Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 47m and 52m? | SELL | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 07-30 04:52 | Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 47m? | SELL | 0.27 | $6.26 |
| 07-29 23:31 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 30? | SELL | 0.34 | $16.28 |
| 07-29 15:09 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3246518919 | $120.12 |
| 07-19 14:46 | Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? | SELL | 0.33 | $33.72 |
| 07-19 14:01 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 20? | SELL | 0.46 | $1.11 |
| 07-19 13:22 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 20? | SELL | 0.48 | $6.65 |
| 07-19 09:07 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 20? | SELL | 0.4 | $39.00 |
| 07-19 07:15 | Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 38%-40%? | SELL | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 07-19 07:12 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 20? | SELL | 0.3113536822 | $32.13 |
| 07-19 06:53 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 20? | SELL | 0.36 | $2.16 |
| 07-19 05:45 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $4.95 |
| 07-19 05:45 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.979 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 05:45 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.972 | $5.01 |
| 06-28 09:30 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.789 | $8.04 |