Honeydown
0xa4c130c65b64917037d5121ea6294652afc30f60
- Realised P&L
- $-87.7k
- Volume
- $4.50M
- Markets traded
- 10,014
- Open portfolio
- $4.79
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10,014
- Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on November 2? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.040 | $4.79 | −$0.21 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 1AM ET · Up | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| XRP Up or Down - November 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET · Up | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET · Down | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET · Down | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET · Down | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET · Down | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.05 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET · Up | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET · Up | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET · Up | 0.218 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.8kat 0.113Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
- +$2.0kat 0.055Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
- +$1.4kat 0.215Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 9PM ET
- +$828.49at 0.067Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 5PM ET
- +$820.24at 0.135Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on July 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 08:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET | SELL | 0.6 | $17.04 |
| 11-02 08:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET | BUY | 0.3038044856 | $8.65 |
| 11-02 07:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET | BUY | 0.0299999999 | $5.00 |
| 11-02 07:56 | Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 2AM ET | SELL | 0.573 | $9.24 |
| 11-02 07:55 | Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 2AM ET | BUY | 0.3099999857 | $5.00 |
| 11-02 07:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET | SELL | 0.9 | $0.10 |
| 11-02 07:53 | Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $10.00 |
| 11-02 07:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET | SELL | 0.54 | $9.94 |
| 11-02 07:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET | BUY | 0.269999993 | $5.00 |
| 11-02 07:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on November 2? | BUY | 0.0417495029 | $5.00 |
| 11-02 07:44 | XRP Up or Down - November 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET | BUY | 0.069999999 | $2.00 |
| 11-02 07:42 | Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $5.00 |
| 11-02 07:40 | Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $5.00 |
| 11-02 07:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET | BUY | 0.0699999994 | $5.00 |
| 11-02 07:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET | SELL | 0.25 | $5.00 |