Seniorfg
0xa4a46e832d4058080bf8244579bd829bfe215c30
- Realised P&L
- $-110.28
- Volume
- $17.7k
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $25.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-10-12? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.415 | $25.73 | −$2.17 |
| Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.78 |
| Will Degerfors IF win on 2026-07-25? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.24 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.70 |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs · Aurora Gaming | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.33 |
| Will Trump say "Air Force" or "Space Force" during tribute to Lindsey Graham? · No | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.48 |
| Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13? · No | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.40 |
| Spread: LSU (-10.5) · Clemson | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$405.87at 0.500Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$366.24at 0.500Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?
- +$356.50at 0.5002026 Balance of Power: Other
- +$112.05at 0.500Will Ugo Humbert win Wimbledon 2025?
- +$111.55at 0.500Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 07:47 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.998 | $30.97 |
| 10-08 07:47 | Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-10-12? | BUY | 0.45 | $27.90 |
| 10-08 07:47 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $31.00 |
| 09-10 11:55 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.48 | $14.40 |
| 09-03 09:04 | Spread: LSU (-10.5) | BUY | 0.53 | $13.78 |
| 08-19 07:55 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | BUY | 0.39 | $18.33 |
| 08-03 06:55 | Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.007 | $5.21 |
| 08-03 06:55 | Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.998 | $772.22 |
| 08-03 06:55 | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | SELL | 0.005 | $3.61 |
| 08-03 06:54 | Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | BUY | 0.999 | $173.00 |
| 08-03 06:54 | Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.992 | $184.76 |
| 08-03 06:54 | Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | BUY | 0.999 | $600.00 |
| 08-03 06:53 | Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.992 | $554.28 |
| 08-03 06:52 | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | SELL | 0.994 | $717.67 |
| 07-29 07:08 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $31.50 |