0xa49a7267a6a6eaa95a4665515ba935ab3ef625cb
0xa49a7267a6a6eaa95a4665515ba935ab3ef625cb
- Realised P&L
- $-0.47
- Volume
- $397.17
- Markets traded
- 111
- Open portfolio
- $0.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded111
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.435 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.69at 0.260Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?
- +$5.63at 0.268Will Trump say "Nuclear" during remarks at NASA?
- +$3.99at 0.341Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$3.51at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?
- +$3.35at 0.379S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on August 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 16:01 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on October 16? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 07:47 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 23:41 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 14:33 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 05:40 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 21:38 | Will Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 01:31 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $224 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 17:31 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 09:12 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 00:42 | Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 02:03 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 16:06 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 20:00 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 19:50 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 06:05 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |