DaisyMacdonald2891
0xa48851b434da8eac927902d9be71d7125bcdf562
- Realised P&L
- $688.89
- Volume
- $184.3k
- Markets traded
- 198
- Open portfolio
- $362.73
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded198
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.925 | $191.47 | +$21.73 |
| Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? · $140 | 0.300 | 0.554 | $96.95 | +$44.45 |
| Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.100 | $60.20 | −$42.14 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.910 | $9.10 | +$0.90 |
| Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? · Yes | 0.710 | 1.000 | $5.00 | +$1.45 |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$483.99at 0.330Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 15, 2026?
- +$401.50at 0.500XRP Up or Down - February 18, 2AM ET
- +$271.95at 0.510Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 9PM ET
- +$243.51at 0.512Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce
- +$240.00at 0.400Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 05:25 | Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? | SELL | 0.404 | $237.96 |
| 04-23 10:27 | Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? | BUY | 0.697 | $410.53 |
| 04-13 15:39 | Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $677.88 |
| 04-13 15:36 | Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $100.30 |
| 04-11 02:47 | Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $928.24 |
| 04-09 22:17 | Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%? | SELL | 0.9 | $513.90 |
| 04-09 22:16 | Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%? | SELL | 0.9 | $396.90 |
| 04-09 12:38 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | SELL | 0.71 | $504.10 |
| 04-07 11:30 | Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | BUY | 0.88 | $624.80 |
| 03-30 17:13 | Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.26 | $34.32 |
| 03-30 13:31 | Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $590.59 |
| 03-30 09:14 | Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%? | BUY | 0.85 | $860.20 |
| 03-30 07:58 | Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? | BUY | 0.3 | $52.50 |
| 03-30 05:22 | Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.31 | $40.92 |
| 03-30 03:36 | Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $598.26 |