shuaishuai88
0xa4874773b89c4f004b619c881cf36186832ace6a
- Realised P&L
- $-61.01
- Volume
- $30.6k
- Markets traded
- 302
- Open portfolio
- $44.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded302
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in November? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.920 | $44.75 | −$1.43 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 5? · No | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.63 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? · No | 0.929 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.52 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 16? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.60 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 6? · No | 0.074 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.48 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 17? · Yes | 0.553 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 11? · Yes | 0.888 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.64 |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.642 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.33at 0.694Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?
- +$17.29at 0.112Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 8?
- +$17.08at 0.088Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 8?
- +$16.46at 0.960Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?
- +$13.16at 0.933Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 05:34 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in November? | BUY | 0.95 | $46.19 |
| 10-31 03:57 | Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9556633663 | $44.40 |
| 10-31 03:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October? | SELL | 0.988 | $44.41 |
| 10-30 04:26 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October? | BUY | 0.92 | $41.35 |
| 10-30 04:25 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? | SELL | 0.976 | $41.58 |
| 10-25 04:21 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October? | BUY | 0.7 | $29.82 |
| 10-24 14:42 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 24? | BUY | 0.9399999987 | $28.73 |
| 10-23 01:31 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October? | BUY | 0.7099999972 | $20.43 |
| 10-13 10:36 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.749 | $29.20 |
| 10-13 09:11 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.9114642216 | $35.54 |
| 10-08 12:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on October 8? | SELL | 0.993 | $45.68 |
| 10-08 04:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on October 8? | BUY | 0.983 | $45.22 |
| 10-08 04:35 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9? | SELL | 0.3214925373 | $25.85 |
| 10-08 04:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 8? | SELL | 0.184100005 | $36.82 |
| 10-08 04:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 8? | SELL | 0.2090322867 | $42.34 |