chanceonme1
0xa469e00691548dd92884bd8b36c720f35daa7f29
- Realised P&L
- $-1.98
- Volume
- $952.11
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $1.47
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.162 | 0.075 | $0.93 | −$1.07 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.020 | $0.55 | −$0.45 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.33at 0.792Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
- +$-1.05at 0.001Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 12?
- +$-1.20at 0.294Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 03:55 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1619999192 | $2.00 |
| 06-13 04:08 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? | BUY | 0.0370000014 | $1.00 |
| 06-13 03:53 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 12? | BUY | 0.0011859934 | $1.00 |
| 06-13 03:47 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.0364416766 | $1.00 |
| 06-13 03:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET | SELL | 0.24 | $4.28 |
| 06-13 03:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET | BUY | 0.2799999731 | $5.00 |
| 06-13 03:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET | BUY | 0.7799999813 | $5.00 |