PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Chanceseeker

0xa456ef9f23d43a428a230cde9d50c828ebfcf689

Realised P&L
$42.12
Volume
$12.9k
Markets traded
26
Open portfolio
$4.09

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded26
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration45.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample10 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration47.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0150.002$1.95$17.63
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · No0.2650.034$0.68$4.62
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0050.001$0.50$4.50
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%? · Yes0.0060.015$0.46+$0.27
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%? · Yes0.0420.004$0.20$1.92
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0100.002$0.15$0.85
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0230.001$0.15$6.85
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of December? · No0.0260.000$0.00$1.04
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? · No0.0150.000$0.00$1.50
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? · Yes0.0400.000$0.00$4.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes0.2100.000$0.00$2.10
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00$5.00
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$3.22
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes0.0110.000$0.00$1.10
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? · Yes0.1800.000$0.00$1.80

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-28 20:21Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%?BUY0.042398$2.12
05-28 16:14Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.061$6.10
05-21 01:27Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.005$5.00
05-19 01:53Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.025$5.00
05-05 10:55Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL0.84$5.04
04-22 00:14Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.02$2.86
04-05 14:22Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.012$0.72
04-04 10:20Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.004$6.00
04-04 10:19Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.061$9.15
04-04 09:52Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.006$3.96
04-04 09:49Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.006$3.00
04-04 09:45Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.061$4.58
04-04 09:44Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?BUY0.26$2.60
04-02 09:33Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY0.63$3.78
03-28 09:43Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.01$1.00