Chanceseeker
0xa456ef9f23d43a428a230cde9d50c828ebfcf689
- Realised P&L
- $42.12
- Volume
- $12.9k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $4.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.60at 0.007Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$17.04at 0.026Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$13.26at 0.010Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?
- +$9.20at 0.008Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$7.20at 0.250Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-28 20:21 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%? | BUY | 0.042398 | $2.12 |
| 05-28 16:14 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.061 | $6.10 |
| 05-21 01:27 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 05-19 01:53 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.025 | $5.00 |
| 05-05 10:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.84 | $5.04 |
| 04-22 00:14 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.02 | $2.86 |
| 04-05 14:22 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.012 | $0.72 |
| 04-04 10:20 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.004 | $6.00 |
| 04-04 10:19 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.061 | $9.15 |
| 04-04 09:52 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.006 | $3.96 |
| 04-04 09:49 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.006 | $3.00 |
| 04-04 09:45 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.061 | $4.58 |
| 04-04 09:44 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.60 |
| 04-02 09:33 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.63 | $3.78 |
| 03-28 09:43 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |