0xa43dc1ed18f2e0c6e08f4a8bd251b08e7050e626
0xa43dc1ed18f2e0c6e08f4a8bd251b08e7050e626
- Realised P&L
- $-3.20
- Volume
- $51.60
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $23.16
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.625 | $4.58 | +$2.38 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.680 | 1.000 | $3.23 | +$1.03 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.979 | $3.21 | +$1.01 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $340 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.840 | $2.93 | +$0.73 |
| Will Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.495 | $2.72 | +$0.52 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.835 | $2.36 | +$0.16 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.755 | $2.10 | −$0.10 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.595 | $2.01 | −$0.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.42at 0.482Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$-1.09at 0.532Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$-2.26at 0.492Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?
- +$-2.28at 0.270Will Muse be #3 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 10:17 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $340 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999084 | $2.20 |
| 09-21 01:40 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999705 | $2.20 |
| 09-20 16:16 | Will Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.20 |
| 09-20 07:20 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999605 | $2.20 |
| 09-19 22:00 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2999999727 | $2.20 |
| 09-19 13:34 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.6699999178 | $2.20 |
| 09-19 05:34 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998145 | $2.20 |
| 09-18 21:12 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999504 | $2.20 |
| 09-18 12:46 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999302 | $2.20 |
| 09-18 03:28 | Will Muse be #3 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.2599999835 | $2.20 |
| 09-17 17:27 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $2.20 |
| 09-17 06:25 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199998823 | $1.06 |