twinna
0xa43da0aab839cf651a70e0e310462bb53a3b00f4
- Realised P&L
- $71.5k
- Volume
- $1.33M
- Markets traded
- 265
- Open portfolio
- $66.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded265
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.2kat 0.314Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?
- +$8.8kat 0.125US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$7.4kat 0.120MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$7.2kat 0.373MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$6.1kat 0.489Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 17:37 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $6.9k |
| 10-29 17:37 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $10.3k |
| 10-29 03:28 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%? | BUY | 0.1781089464 | $87.86 |
| 10-28 18:22 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $5.1k |
| 10-27 19:51 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.3k |
| 10-27 19:42 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.68 | $930.52 |
| 10-27 05:18 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.5k |
| 10-27 05:17 | Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.54 |
| 10-27 05:13 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $2.8k |
| 10-26 02:10 | Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.64 | $32.00 |
| 10-25 22:08 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.51 | $2.0k |
| 10-23 18:28 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $90.91 |
| 10-22 04:37 | Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat? | BUY | 0.6796109172 | $1.2k |
| 10-22 04:36 | Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.3 | $74.70 |
| 10-21 23:34 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $43.55 |