0xa4305cd05007c1bd6188b1dfae57cbbd47b793d9
0xa4305cd05007c1bd6188b1dfae57cbbd47b793d9
- Realised P&L
- $-17.32
- Volume
- $287.21
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $3.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.424 | 0.589 | $1.39 | +$0.39 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.993 | $1.32 | +$0.32 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.605 | $0.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.62at 0.235Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5
- +$6.28at 0.235Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5
- +$5.10at 0.276Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5
- +$4.17at 0.327South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5
- +$4.13at 0.327Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 16:36 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 08:02 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.423999922 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 08:25 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2629999563 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 00:24 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:24 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 08:17 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 00:17 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7119999886 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 00:17 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 11:29 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.76 |
| 07-28 01:19 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.619999895 | $1.89 |
| 07-27 00:56 | Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.7399999632 | $2.01 |
| 07-26 00:51 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July? | BUY | 0.27 | $1.62 |
| 07-25 12:51 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999926 | $4.96 |
| 07-23 00:47 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.5799998886 | $1.77 |
| 07-22 12:45 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999632 | $2.01 |