0xa41425fd3fc70f4d5fa61081b176f14a98b4905e
0xa41425fd3fc70f4d5fa61081b176f14a98b4905e
- Realised P&L
- $36.74
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 247
- Open portfolio
- $35.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded247
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.818 | 0.885 | $24.38 | +$1.85 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.967 | $4.16 | +$0.16 |
| Spread: Haiti (-1.5) · Trinidad and Tobago | 0.630 | 1.000 | $2.27 | +$0.84 |
| Dominican Republic vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5 · Over | 0.730 | 1.000 | $1.86 | +$0.50 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · No | 0.930 | 0.925 | $1.60 | −$0.01 |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.029 | $0.63 | −$4.37 |
| Spread: CSD Municipal (-2.5) · CSD Suchitepéquez | 0.750 | 0.245 | $0.48 | −$0.98 |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.104 | 0.029 | $0.28 | −$0.73 |
| Cayman Islands vs. Dominica: O/U 2.5 · Over | 0.505 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$3.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.13at 0.078Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 31?
- +$7.58at 0.217Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 8?
- +$6.42at 0.136Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 14?
- +$5.14at 0.170Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 6?
- +$5.14at 0.288Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 23:40 | Cayman Islands vs. Dominica: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.5 | $1.96 |
| 09-24 23:38 | Spread: Haiti (-1.5) | BUY | 0.6299999119 | $1.43 |
| 09-24 23:21 | Dominican Republic vs. Nicaragua: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.7299998819 | $1.36 |
| 09-24 23:08 | Cayman Islands vs. Dominica: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.5099999516 | $2.00 |
| 09-24 22:44 | Spread: CSD Municipal (-2.5) | BUY | 0.75 | $1.46 |
| 09-24 17:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | BUY | 0.9299999827 | $1.61 |
| 09-24 17:26 | Portugal vs. Wales: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.6899999645 | $3.89 |
| 09-24 17:20 | Portugal vs. Wales: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.48 | $1.41 |
| 09-24 16:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.76 | $5.96 |
| 09-15 18:54 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.986 | $2.09 |
| 09-12 14:33 | Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | BUY | 0.2999999703 | $1.01 |
| 08-25 16:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.996 | $0.40 |
| 08-19 08:28 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 19? | BUY | 0.3499998826 | $1.64 |
| 08-19 08:28 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 19? | BUY | 0.2199998872 | $1.17 |
| 08-19 07:50 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88999998 | $4.00 |