0xa4067A9ef3b02EA7D12200Ab457eD9aff05cEcb9-1779287850847
0xa4067a9ef3b02ea7d12200ab457ed9aff05cecb9
- Realised P&L
- $-50.44
- Volume
- $4.7k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $354.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.965 | 0.999 | $233.75 | +$7.75 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.865 | $41.19 | +$11.19 |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $40.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.605 | $30.63 | −$9.37 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? · No | 0.839 | 0.888 | $8.47 | +$0.47 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.544 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$160.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$109.07at 0.445Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
- +$27.48at 0.582Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
- +$18.56at 0.928Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$17.42at 0.788Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$5.16at 0.886Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 15:41 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | SELL | 0.9 | $78.94 |
| 09-16 15:41 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | SELL | 0.8792970655 | $223.53 |
| 08-27 17:31 | Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.9653900294 | $226.00 |
| 08-26 18:17 | Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? | BUY | 0.7899999978 | $40.00 |
| 08-20 15:44 | Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.998 | $40.00 |
| 08-20 15:39 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffs | BUY | 0.6699999972 | $50.00 |
| 07-21 16:15 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.8389999953 | $8.00 |
| 07-21 16:15 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | BUY | 0.5699999967 | $50.00 |
| 07-21 16:14 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? | BUY | 0.8809999985 | $40.00 |
| 07-20 21:11 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.924999991 | $100.00 |
| 07-20 21:11 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.439999993 | $30.00 |
| 07-20 20:40 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.924999995 | $140.00 |
| 07-20 20:39 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6299999794 | $30.00 |
| 07-20 20:37 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.4299999984 | $80.00 |
| 07-20 20:37 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | SELL | 0.5779012589 | $29.38 |