0xa3fbca7ba66ac136316557208eb8cf1d0da44a87
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 319
- Open portfolio
- $780.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded319
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.960 | 0.989 | $721.47 | +$21.30 |
| StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No | 0.500 | 0.980 | $58.84 | +$28.81 |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2 · JD Gaming | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$255.00 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$62.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.3kat 0.512Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?
- +$3.1kat 0.400Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?
- +$2.5kat 0.723Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$1.8kat 0.400Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?
- +$1.4kat 0.449Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 06:34 | StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0013581538 | $1.78 |
| 10-15 06:34 | StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.011 | $3.96 |
| 10-15 06:34 | StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.012 | $14.40 |
| 10-11 06:36 | Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.959801231 | $700.17 |
| 08-26 00:44 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | BUY | 0.998 | $998.00 |
| 08-26 00:31 | LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | BUY | 0.7 | $21.00 |
| 08-26 00:30 | LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals | BUY | 0.72 | $40.56 |
| 07-12 03:19 | GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.994 | $994.00 |
| 07-02 02:54 | Will Flauren Win MSI Finals MVP | BUY | 0.998 | $23.94 |
| 07-02 02:52 | Will Saint Win MSI Finals MVP | BUY | 0.998 | $99.80 |
| 07-02 02:52 | Will FURIA win MSI 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 06-05 10:37 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? | BUY | 0.988 | $494.00 |
| 05-21 03:07 | Will BRION qualify for EWC 2026? | BUY | 0.9972727273 | $54.85 |
| 05-21 03:07 | Will FEARX qualify for EWC 2026? | BUY | 0.9890353707 | $139.81 |
| 05-20 10:45 | LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2 | BUY | 0.51 | $255.00 |