0xa3F8332Fef0082Ba39D120ed7FB9099052a25d8E-1733306646143
0xa3f8332fef0082ba39d120ed7fb9099052a25d8e
- Realised P&L
- $-20.25
- Volume
- $5.0k
- Markets traded
- 139
- Open portfolio
- $47.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded139
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,100 October 12-18? · No | 0.996 | 0.997 | $28.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Mada Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · No | 0.997 | 1.000 | $19.25 | +$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.36at 0.992Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- +$0.22at 0.995Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 21?
- +$0.18at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
- +$0.16at 0.991Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February?
- +$0.16at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 06:34 | Will Ethereum reach $3,100 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.996 | $28.00 |
| 10-15 13:38 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.998 | $23.10 |
| 10-13 05:52 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $18.00 |
| 10-12 09:04 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 12? | BUY | 0.998 | $20.70 |
| 10-09 19:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 10? | BUY | 0.9967833059 | $23.00 |
| 10-08 15:41 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 9? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $20.10 |
| 10-03 23:01 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%? | BUY | 0.995 | $16.00 |
| 10-01 17:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 2? | BUY | 0.9949999906 | $22.20 |
| 09-29 16:24 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in September? | BUY | 0.996 | $23.80 |
| 09-28 06:25 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? | BUY | 0.9979999992 | $22.70 |
| 09-26 16:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.9969999746 | $19.00 |
| 09-25 00:13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 26? | BUY | 0.995 | $16.50 |
| 09-17 14:10 | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $16.00 |
| 09-05 04:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 6? | BUY | 0.996 | $19.00 |
| 09-01 08:37 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $28.00 |