ToadLord
0xa3df2a941dfd47005aaa4942e128ac37312b6f87
- Realised P&L
- $-55.0k
- Volume
- $8.60M
- Markets traded
- 158
- Open portfolio
- $874.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded158
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration96.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.3kat 0.034US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$7.5kat 0.333Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$1.7kat 0.611US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$799.01at 0.360UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)
- +$752.56at 0.528Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 23:08 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.01 | $40.00 |
| 09-14 20:22 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.0120544 | $3.62 |
| 09-14 18:33 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.0159737006 | $81.87 |
| 09-14 15:54 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.013 | $1.62 |
| 09-14 13:31 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.012 | $1.44 |
| 09-13 12:24 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.013 | $52.00 |
| 09-13 02:15 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.012 | $60.00 |
| 09-12 18:24 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.012 | $2.40 |
| 09-11 14:38 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.0149271375 | $338.92 |
| 09-11 09:11 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.013 | $113.45 |
| 09-10 18:18 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.012 | $1.40 |
| 09-09 11:40 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.0121169697 | $39.99 |
| 09-08 19:47 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.013 | $2.90 |
| 09-08 16:26 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.011042528 | $55.21 |
| 09-08 09:12 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | SELL | 0.011 | $55.00 |