0xa3d27f5dc6ca82f9fa7dcf96fa0ef0c4b599a44c
0xa3d27f5dc6ca82f9fa7dcf96fa0ef0c4b599a44c
- Realised P&L
- $-28.19
- Volume
- $7.1k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $1.68
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.161 | $1.68 | −$0.20 |
| Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? · No | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.87 |
| Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Laptop" on Thursday? · No | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.74 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.42 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.192 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.38 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.33 |
| Will Trump say "Camera" this week? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.87 |
| Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? · No | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.87 |
| Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" this week? · No | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.87 |
| Will Trump say "Drone" this week? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.87 |
| Will Trump say "Cuba" this week? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.19at 0.630Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
- +$4.25at 0.083Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.76at 0.735Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
- +$3.48at 0.110Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$2.03at 0.910Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 17:58 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1959999828 | $8.63 |
| 07-09 17:57 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.32 | $7.64 |
| 07-09 17:57 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.193 | $8.55 |
| 07-09 17:56 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.16 | $9.36 |
| 07-02 17:41 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.064999982 | $3.33 |
| 07-02 17:40 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.080999985 | $4.74 |
| 07-02 17:40 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1069999809 | $4.74 |
| 07-02 17:40 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1849999731 | $4.75 |
| 07-02 17:40 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3469999561 | $4.78 |
| 07-02 17:39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.996 | $23.48 |
| 06-08 02:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.9099999992 | $21.45 |
| 05-27 16:37 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.9939999998 | $21.32 |
| 05-21 19:47 | Will GCR appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.12 |
| 05-21 16:06 | Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Trump" 5+ times on Thursday? | BUY | 0.98 | $7.22 |
| 05-21 16:06 | Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Laptop" on Thursday? | BUY | 0.0271295197 | $1.87 |