akinfeevb
0xa3c0bc722f0d76f96d6f808bc780b8939780296c
- Realised P&L
- $15.25
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $198.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-19 House seat? · No | 0.950 | 0.976 | $50.94 | +$1.36 |
| Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.975 | 0.995 | $50.22 | +$1.01 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MO-08 House seat? · Yes | 0.963 | 0.981 | $49.33 | +$0.88 |
| Will the Republican Party win the WY-AL House seat? · Yes | 0.975 | 0.967 | $46.36 | −$0.41 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.034 | $1.70 | −$0.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.20at 0.910Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
- +$1.80at 0.940Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.80at 0.957Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.06at 0.943Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- +$1.00at 0.963Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 14:03 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.04 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 14:02 | Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | SELL | 0.991 | $21.44 |
| 05-06 13:36 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.983 | $49.15 |
| 04-10 12:53 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $19.91 |