BrutallyHonest
0xa3bc2f1a97b2e271a8b9b52111ee61d4218c229d
- Realised P&L
- $-324.84
- Volume
- $7.4k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $53.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.00at 0.320Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$20.44at 0.090Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$15.30at 0.810Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$13.33at 0.180Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$12.00at 0.180Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 11:13 | Will Israel win on 2026-10-04? | BUY | 0.4750329787 | $50.00 |
| 09-24 13:51 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.1131572259 | $50.00 |
| 08-10 19:03 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | SELL | 0.0743386667 | $5.58 |
| 08-10 19:02 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.18 | $18.00 |
| 08-10 19:02 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 08-10 19:01 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $21.43 |
| 08-10 19:01 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.963 | $96.30 |
| 05-22 13:23 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $52.00 |
| 05-16 16:11 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.5579999804 | $10.00 |
| 05-16 02:00 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.2821331473 | $31.34 |
| 01-20 17:06 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $81.00 |
| 01-15 12:47 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $55.00 |
| 01-15 12:47 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.3 | $33.33 |
| 01-15 12:22 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $30.00 |
| 01-06 01:04 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999939 | $20.00 |