renaultkam
0xa3bc065bf33c301bd5cfe7e2e05a3ed754c86f30
- Realised P&L
- $-17.85
- Volume
- $796.71
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $12.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.101 | $4.59 | −$0.41 |
| Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.182 | $2.37 | +$1.37 |
| Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.355 | $1.61 | +$0.61 |
| Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.695 | $1.48 | +$0.48 |
| Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.111 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Tung Tzu-wei win the next Keelung Mayor election? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.235 | $0.90 | −$0.10 |
| Will Chuang Ching-cheng win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election? · Yes | 0.151 | 0.050 | $0.33 | −$0.67 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.70at 0.270Will "The Rip" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (February 3)
- +$2.39at 0.288Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
- +$1.33at 0.940Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$1.15at 0.470Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?
- +$0.89at 0.528Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 14:14 | Will Tung Tzu-wei win the next Keelung Mayor election? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 14:31 | Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election? | BUY | 0.1189999907 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 14:26 | Will Chuang Ching-cheng win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election? | BUY | 0.1509999899 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 13:51 | Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 03:17 | Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.0769999348 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 03:03 | Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 02:57 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.55 | $1.03 |
| 07-16 09:24 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.269999937 | $3.00 |
| 06-28 13:40 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0509999494 | $1.00 |
| 06-10 12:59 | Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | BUY | 0.462485027 | $1.00 |
| 06-10 12:11 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.39 |
| 06-10 12:11 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.35 |
| 06-10 12:10 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.287 | $0.67 |
| 05-18 16:44 | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.0189999817 | $1.00 |
| 05-18 16:44 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.064 | $0.80 |