instacum
0xa3b86628e9824773d183e7d088b950d31b5a720c
- Realised P&L
- $-37.87
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $263.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the CA-43 House seat? · No | 0.968 | 0.986 | $53.98 | +$0.96 |
| Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.957 | 0.986 | $53.32 | +$1.54 |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.971 | 0.980 | $53.01 | +$0.46 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MI-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.979 | 0.987 | $52.71 | +$0.40 |
| Obama arrested before 2027? · No | 0.982 | 0.975 | $50.73 | −$0.36 |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? · No | 0.977 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.65at 0.912Will Joe Hunter win Survivor Season 50?
- +$2.30at 0.954Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.15at 0.977Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?
- +$0.85at 0.979Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$0.76at 0.962Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-07 12:54 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $19.24 |