AgriasOaks
0xa315afc43cd6c3fc06774d33d769d0ff043ecabb
- Realised P&L
- $-21.3k
- Volume
- $11.09M
- Markets traded
- 1,966
- Open portfolio
- $47.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,966
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration28.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? · No | 0.880 | 0.885 | $44.7k | +$252.48 |
| Seahawks vs. Cardinals · Seahawks | 0.650 | 0.655 | $1.5k | +$11.74 |
| Lions vs. Bills: O/U 56.5 · Over | 0.440 | 0.770 | $755.37 | +$323.73 |
| Lions vs. Bills: 1H Moneyline · Lions | 0.350 | 0.001 | $5.00 | −$3.5k |
| Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs · Iron Wing | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.0k |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) · Lakers | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$102.24 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays · Baltimore Orioles | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.4k |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 · Under | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$94.29 |
| Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) · Los Angeles Angels | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$136.08 |
| Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) · Minnesota Twins | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$135.70 |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner · Team Yandex | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.00 |
| Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) · New York Yankees | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$102.24 |
| Noche UFC: Jessie Rosas vs. Sean King (Featherweight, Prelims) · Jessie Rosas | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$323.69 |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) · Knicks | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$113.22 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals · St. Louis Cardinals | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$135.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.0kat 0.540Rams vs. Seahawks
- +$36.0kat 0.320Steelers vs. Bengals
- +$33.4kat 0.468Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.5
- +$31.8kat 0.213Akron vs. Buffalo
- +$21.1kat 0.290Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 00:06 | Lions vs. Bills: 1H Moneyline | BUY | 0.35 | $3.5k |
| 09-14 01:50 | Cowboys vs. Giants | BUY | 0.33 | $19.80 |
| 09-14 00:15 | Cowboys vs. Giants: 1H Moneyline | BUY | 0.41 | $4.0k |
| 09-13 23:23 | San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants | BUY | 0.4 | $1.5k |
| 09-13 22:41 | Cardinals vs. Chargers | BUY | 0.58 | $2.9k |
| 09-13 20:25 | Spread: Raiders (-1.5) | BUY | 0.58 | $870.00 |
| 09-13 20:24 | Spread: Raiders (-1.5) | BUY | 0.58 | $201.84 |
| 09-11 03:50 | UTSA vs. Texas State | BUY | 0.46 | $483.00 |
| 09-11 03:48 | UTSA vs. Texas State | BUY | 0.46 | $276.00 |
| 09-11 02:25 | Spread: 49ers (-2.5) | BUY | 0.63 | $106.47 |
| 09-11 02:19 | Spread: 49ers (-3.5) | BUY | 0.52 | $673.83 |
| 09-10 18:30 | Falcons vs. Steelers | BUY | 0.34 | $51.00 |
| 09-08 19:52 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BUY | 0.74 | $51.80 |
| 09-07 17:48 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BUY | 0.68 | $20.69 |
| 09-06 18:33 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers | BUY | 0.51 | $204.00 |