SAPolitcsSeer
0xa30e451354cb41cfd46689a065defed989ea49d5
- Realised P&L
- $66.4k
- Volume
- $2.37M
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $107.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.1kat 0.911Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$10.9kat 0.939Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$5.6kat 0.947Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$3.1kat 0.738Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$3.0kat 0.971Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 19:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.735 | $4.0k |
| 07-24 19:56 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7408958507 | $4.7k |
| 07-24 19:40 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.969620969 | $9.7k |
| 07-24 19:39 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.961 | $2.9k |
| 07-23 17:53 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.964 | $6.8k |
| 07-18 02:49 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.66 | $1.9k |
| 07-18 02:44 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.9980072435 | $4.1k |
| 07-18 02:44 | Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $143.86 |
| 07-18 02:39 | Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.9980312731 | $13.6k |
| 07-18 02:39 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $66.0k |
| 07-18 02:32 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18? | BUY | 0.986 | $5.1k |
| 07-18 02:30 | Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.9687141207 | $1.4k |
| 07-18 02:29 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.9471331468 | $375.66 |
| 07-18 02:28 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.3k |
| 06-24 23:24 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $8.3k |