SAPolitcsSeer
0xa30e451354cb41cfd46689a065defed989ea49d5
- Realised P&L
- $67.1k
- Volume
- $3.04M
- Markets traded
- 123
- Open portfolio
- $429.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded123
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.1kat 0.911Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$10.9kat 0.939Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$6.2kat 0.920Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$5.5kat 0.949Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$3.5kat 0.839Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 23:19 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.93 | $20.1k |
| 10-29 23:17 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.7k |
| 10-29 23:16 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.6k |
| 10-29 23:14 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.9705828752 | $25.6k |
| 10-19 03:02 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.949369468 | $1.2k |
| 10-19 02:52 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9497436867 | $30.0k |
| 10-17 07:10 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.0k |
| 10-17 06:44 | Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.947089123 | $1.9k |
| 10-17 06:41 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.1k |
| 10-17 06:40 | Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.1k |
| 10-17 06:36 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $6.1k |
| 10-17 06:34 | Will the Democratic Party win the NV-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.9549868666 | $2.2k |
| 10-17 06:26 | Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat? | BUY | 0.8387428167 | $5.0k |
| 10-17 06:25 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9590548034 | $3.1k |
| 10-17 06:15 | Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9577367152 | $941.71 |