0xa2fc16ac3cacea7a99e2b282c4f58dce1158f028
0xa2fc16ac3cacea7a99e2b282c4f58dce1158f028
- Realised P&L
- $17.96
- Volume
- $328.45
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $61.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.960 | $20.00 | +$5.00 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.885 | $19.67 | +$3.67 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.307 | 0.395 | $12.27 | +$2.72 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.505 | $3.16 | +$0.16 |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election? · No | 0.900 | 0.950 | $3.06 | +$0.16 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.310 | $2.91 | −$0.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.43at 0.080Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$10.21at 0.353Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
- +$6.40at 0.665Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.75at 0.210Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$3.61at 0.320Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 11:36 | Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? | BUY | 0.32 | $3.00 |
| 10-04 11:36 | Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%? | BUY | 0.48 | $3.00 |
| 10-04 11:34 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.90 |
| 09-24 05:27 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7199999946 | $16.00 |
| 09-24 05:27 | Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election? | BUY | 0.7199999981 | $15.00 |
| 07-23 17:16 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3069999862 | $9.55 |
| 07-19 22:49 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.9199999816 | $2.00 |
| 07-19 21:45 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9209999889 | $2.00 |
| 07-19 19:00 | Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.725999849 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 19:00 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 07-18 20:54 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5909999437 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 16:29 | Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic | BUY | 0.209999974 | $5.00 |
| 06-22 20:59 | Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | SELL | 0.77 | $20.38 |
| 06-22 08:32 | Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.3399999781 | $9.00 |
| 05-16 18:08 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.0739999343 | $1.00 |