bigmichael
0xa2ea9504a82a6e1707a5d7e9f4c9f789fbe88ed1
- Realised P&L
- $785.88
- Volume
- $404.6k
- Markets traded
- 1,605
- Open portfolio
- $405.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,605
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$208.43at 0.218Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 14?
- +$153.15at 0.660Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 29?
- +$90.04at 0.673Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 9?
- +$63.11at 0.945Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 8?
- +$46.66at 0.956Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 16:06 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.998 | $65.58 |
| 09-28 16:06 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.997 | $26.89 |
| 09-28 16:04 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.06 |
| 09-28 16:03 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.999 | $40.06 |
| 09-28 16:03 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.999 | $199.80 |
| 09-28 16:00 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.995 | $113.59 |
| 09-28 14:53 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $199.80 |
| 09-28 14:22 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.995 | $79.60 |
| 09-28 14:19 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.97 | $5.82 |
| 09-28 11:02 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.994 | $49.70 |
| 09-28 11:00 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.97 | $83.42 |
| 09-28 07:27 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on September 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.94 |
| 09-28 03:27 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $345.60 |
| 09-28 00:44 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.99 | $150.69 |
| 09-28 00:43 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.99 | $304.92 |