0xA2cF01420C4ec99Da2209ec0dCf5f683022E7C8e-1771704875510
0xa2cf01420c4ec99da2209ec0dcf5f683022e7c8e
- Realised P&L
- $442.47
- Volume
- $19.3k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $375.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.188 | 0.075 | $375.00 | −$565.65 |
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$0.95 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.60 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.80 |
| Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? · No | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$163.84 |
| Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.80 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? · No | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$258.28at 0.355Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$100.00at 0.800US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
- +$80.00at 0.150Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
- +$32.00at 0.320Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
- +$32.00at 0.840US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 10:24 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.28 | $56.00 |
| 06-15 06:41 | US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $12.60 |
| 06-13 20:19 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $6.88 |
| 05-16 16:05 | Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 05-10 10:20 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2550000083 | $8.00 |
| 05-10 10:19 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999903 | $10.00 |
| 02-24 07:07 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 24? | BUY | 0.004 | $2.00 |
| 02-22 18:34 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? | BUY | 0.0559999983 | $30.00 |
| 02-21 22:35 | US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.9889999857 | $50.00 |
| 02-21 22:16 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999959 | $50.00 |
| 02-21 20:42 | US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.985999998 | $3.00 |