0xA2CEae5D7B40B910fb3673Bc87F2bf0126Fdc879-1771555236222
0xa2ceae5d7b40b910fb3673bc87f2bf0126fdc879
- Realised P&L
- $-22.24
- Volume
- $600.44
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $29.02
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.387 | 0.543 | $21.07 | +$6.07 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · Yes | 0.170 | 0.105 | $4.95 | −$3.05 |
| Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.070 | $1.88 | −$6.12 |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.160 | $0.68 | −$1.32 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.179 | 0.040 | $0.44 | −$1.56 |
| US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.116 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.279 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.67at 0.300Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.77at 0.530Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.47at 0.790Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$0.40at 0.200Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.153Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-12 20:32 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4019999705 | $4.00 |
| 04-12 20:31 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.097 | $1.98 |
| 04-12 20:31 | Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.018 | $0.40 |
| 04-12 20:31 | H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $1.29 |
| 04-12 20:30 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.03 |
| 04-03 19:46 | Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027? | BUY | 0.2999999812 | $8.00 |
| 04-03 04:59 | US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 03-21 16:15 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3906976528 | $9.00 |
| 03-21 16:15 | Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024? | SELL | 0.12 | $1.04 |
| 03-21 16:14 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.20 |
| 03-21 16:14 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.153 | $2.00 |
| 03-21 16:14 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $2.40 |
| 03-21 16:13 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | SELL | 0.14 | $2.59 |
| 03-13 20:10 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.1699999796 | $6.00 |
| 03-08 22:14 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | SELL | 0.974 | $2.46 |