0xa2cdf97a42fa94ac2f19af1fe680754743ab2e8c
- Realised P&L
- $985.20
- Volume
- $159.5k
- Markets traded
- 593
- Open portfolio
- $4.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded593
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.916 | 0.975 | $2.4k | +$146.25 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? · Yes | 0.876 | 0.885 | $1.3k | +$12.80 |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? · No | 0.834 | 0.835 | $326.90 | +$0.58 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.860 | $172.00 | +$44.00 |
| Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.845 | $159.71 | −$10.39 |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? · Yes | 0.737 | 0.225 | $64.38 | −$146.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$868.79at 0.490Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
- +$595.95at 0.847US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$334.42at 0.968US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
- +$329.08at 0.543Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
- +$290.90at 0.349Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 22:44 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.6933107143 | $524.14 |
| 09-08 19:07 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.8 | $100.80 |
| 09-08 19:06 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.8 | $504.00 |
| 09-06 03:26 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.68 | $21.83 |
| 09-06 03:24 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.68 | $210.69 |
| 09-05 19:25 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.68 | $96.73 |
| 09-04 19:46 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6599999987 | $93.88 |
| 09-04 19:38 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6303490732 | $222.26 |
| 08-29 16:35 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9959999984 | $212.19 |
| 08-29 06:11 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.993418804 | $563.34 |
| 08-29 03:47 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $242.25 |
| 08-29 02:51 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $29.00 |
| 08-28 20:51 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $691.27 |
| 08-28 06:33 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.985 | $289.59 |
| 08-28 02:17 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.983 | $297.14 |