0xa2847f1d0e727d88cd83d738614028a0b296d6c9
- Realised P&L
- $-12.86
- Volume
- $870.50
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $65.91
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · No | 0.930 | 0.971 | $26.22 | +$1.10 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.719 | 0.925 | $15.72 | +$3.50 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.921 | 0.964 | $15.42 | +$0.68 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.196 | 0.105 | $4.51 | −$3.89 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.475 | 0.091 | $2.37 | −$10.00 |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? · Yes | 0.142 | 0.128 | $1.02 | −$0.11 |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.065 | $0.65 | −$0.35 |
| Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? · Yes | 0.107 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.00at 0.500Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.10at 0.790U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?
- +$0.93at 0.780Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.75at 0.890U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
- +$0.69at 0.452Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 13:31 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $6.01 |
| 07-10 11:51 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.954 | $6.68 |
| 07-06 09:31 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $7.44 |
| 07-04 02:35 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.0476363636 | $1.05 |
| 06-28 04:01 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.932 | $6.52 |
| 06-25 19:16 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.932 | $7.46 |
| 06-22 00:35 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 06-16 21:25 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $3.57 |
| 06-09 21:02 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.402 | $2.01 |
| 06-08 07:57 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.413 | $2.06 |
| 05-23 06:15 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.439 | $7.46 |
| 05-23 06:15 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.859 | $6.87 |
| 05-23 06:14 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.142 | $1.14 |
| 05-23 06:14 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.10 |
| 05-23 06:14 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $5.58 |