red82
0xa27c40009594cced3dbe8377842de4807c480e55
- Realised P&L
- $-11.51
- Volume
- $12.8k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $6.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 18? · Yes | 0.994 | 0.990 | $2.62 | −$0.01 |
| Will Jenny Steen be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County? · Yes | 0.925 | 0.720 | $2.33 | −$0.66 |
| Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.971 | 0.955 | $1.45 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.48at 0.320Will CA Belgrano vs. CA Tigre end in a draw?
- +$2.53at 0.580Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-15?
- +$1.02at 0.730Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?
- +$0.95at 0.520Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-01-29?
- +$0.86at 0.620Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-02-25?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 18:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 18? | BUY | 0.9939999992 | $2.63 |
| 09-09 18:14 | Will Jenny Steen be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County? | BUY | 0.9249998376 | $2.99 |
| 09-03 22:52 | Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9709999894 | $1.47 |
| 09-03 22:49 | Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.57 |
| 08-28 12:54 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.9879999946 | $1.46 |
| 08-28 12:53 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.9759998187 | $1.55 |
| 08-19 05:51 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.9839999962 | $2.09 |
| 07-31 10:05 | Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.40 |
| 07-16 10:40 | Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.44 |
| 07-09 10:11 | UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.9159999505 | $1.11 |
| 07-09 10:09 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 12? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.03 |
| 07-03 12:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4? | BUY | 0.96 | $4.99 |
| 06-06 19:44 | Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.2k |
| 06-06 17:31 | Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.2k |
| 05-27 23:57 | Will Sweden win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? | BUY | 0.9469998272 | $4.61 |