PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

red82

0xa27c40009594cced3dbe8377842de4807c480e55

Realised P&L
$-11.51
Volume
$12.8k
Markets traded
26
Open portfolio
$6.39

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded26
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration34.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample23 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)65.2%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration41.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 18? · Yes0.9940.990$2.62$0.01
Will Jenny Steen be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County? · Yes0.9250.720$2.33$0.66
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? · Yes0.9710.955$1.45$0.02

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-15 18:29Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 18?BUY0.9939999992$2.63
09-09 18:14Will Jenny Steen be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County?BUY0.9249998376$2.99
09-03 22:52Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?BUY0.9709999894$1.47
09-03 22:49Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?BUY0.996$1.57
08-28 12:54Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?BUY0.9879999946$1.46
08-28 12:53US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?BUY0.9759998187$1.55
08-19 05:51US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?BUY0.9839999962$2.09
07-31 10:05Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 27-August 2?BUY0.996$1.40
07-16 10:40Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.998$2.44
07-09 10:11UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)BUY0.9159999505$1.11
07-09 10:09Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 12?BUY0.99$1.03
07-03 12:14Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4?BUY0.96$4.99
06-06 19:44Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?SELL0.998$3.2k
06-06 17:31Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY0.999$3.2k
05-27 23:57Will Sweden win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?BUY0.9469998272$4.61