PolyBot

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Traders

caspar1248

0xa278b41b5afda5d18da683eb7f851a7b2dc13369

Realised P&L
$-37.8k
Volume
$2.80M
Markets traded
7,643
Open portfolio
$37.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded7,643
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration16.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Spread: LA (-9.5) · LA0.4560.445$12.8k$313.82
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes0.0420.655$1.0k+$965.52
Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.0420.478$764.80+$698.13
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.0420.505$757.50+$695.00
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes0.0420.485$703.19+$642.78
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0310.976$680.39+$658.61
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes0.0400.967$676.55+$648.43
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0310.940$658.00+$636.13
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0290.930$651.00+$630.41
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0310.925$647.69+$625.82
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0310.885$619.85+$597.98
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0310.864$604.45+$582.58
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0310.845$594.13+$572.16
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes0.0340.955$573.07+$552.38
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0290.815$572.93+$552.25

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-18 15:45Counter-Strike: magic vs MIBR (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries PlayoffsBUY0.1499999933$1.12
09-18 15:45Counter-Strike: BBL vs 3DMAX (BO1) - Logitech G Play Connect Group BBUY0.3099999767$2.39
09-18 15:21Counter-Strike: magic vs MIBR (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries PlayoffsBUY0.26$0.77
09-18 15:13Exact Score: Bishop's Cleeve AFC 0 - 0 Tadley Calleva FC?BUY0.5389474736$409.59
09-18 15:12Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs OldMix (BO3) - United21 PlayoffsBUY0.53$0.88
09-18 15:12Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs OldMix (BO3) - United21 PlayoffsBUY0.5314052762$25.35
09-18 15:11Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on September 20?BUY0.9399999938$6.09
09-18 15:05Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Cloud9 (+1.5)BUY0.4$64.09
09-18 15:04Exact Score: Atherton Collieries AFC 3 - 2 Prescot Cables FC?BUY0.5292$396.90
09-18 14:45LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerBUY0.5699998494$1.40
09-18 14:43Szczecin: Marco Cecchinato vs Marco TrungellitiBUY0.1799999983$12.57
09-18 14:07Counter-Strike: magic vs MIBR - Map 2 WinnerBUY0.82$18.45
09-18 14:05Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?BUY0.23$230.00
09-18 13:58Guangzhou: Pavel Kotov vs Rio NoguchiBUY0.3566598393$302.43
09-18 13:21Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?BUY0.87$52.20