1978wolf
0xa27701da1d3ecc815152da8bd6b57bda77d04a70
- Realised P&L
- $-162.25
- Volume
- $32.3k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $122.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.510 | $122.19 | +$14.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$236.18at 0.480Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- +$182.86at 0.532Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-09-08?
- +$116.02at 0.500Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$0.07at 0.999Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 12:28 | Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27? | SELL | 0.48 | $8.34 |
| 09-21 11:43 | Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.45 | $115.63 |
| 09-18 07:07 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.41 | $13.52 |
| 09-18 06:28 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.47 | $231.33 |
| 09-16 09:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 17? | SELL | 0.53 | $5.88 |
| 09-16 08:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 17? | BUY | 0.6 | $166.37 |
| 09-14 16:05 | Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-09-08? | SELL | 0.51 | $6.18 |
| 09-14 15:19 | Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-09-08? | BUY | 0.52 | $210.16 |
| 09-11 12:06 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13? | SELL | 0.48 | $15.67 |
| 09-11 11:33 | Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.49 | $400.04 |
| 06-19 10:17 | Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $60.88 |
| 06-19 10:11 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? | SELL | 0.998 | $34.33 |
| 06-19 10:05 | Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $42.67 |
| 06-19 09:57 | Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.27 |
| 06-19 09:47 | Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? | SELL | 0.981 | $11.20 |