marspredict
0xa25436b9e3dfd91905b35dd5ea8b1a82f01e8d57
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $94.9k
- Markets traded
- 156
- Open portfolio
- $473.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded156
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration81.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 14-20? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.230 | $473.44 | −$102.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$380.42at 0.448Will England win on 2026-07-18?
- +$342.88at 0.138Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 25?
- +$317.45at 0.321Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$96.98at 0.180Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24?
- +$89.92at 0.103Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 19:28 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.2780141781 | $7.00 |
| 09-15 19:27 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.28 | $569.31 |
| 09-15 19:27 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? | SELL | 0.3197304797 | $622.21 |
| 09-14 18:28 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? | BUY | 0.5159999546 | $3.00 |
| 09-14 18:28 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? | BUY | 0.515885497 | $1.0k |
| 09-14 18:27 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September? | SELL | 0.7300352629 | $1.0k |
| 09-14 15:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.7079900269 | $1.0k |
| 09-13 22:12 | Solana Up or Down - September 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET | BUY | 0.29 | $2.90 |
| 09-13 22:11 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 7-13? | SELL | 0.0061568005 | $2.98 |
| 09-12 16:17 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.029 | $14.06 |
| 09-12 16:15 | Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on September 12? | SELL | 0.1304020909 | $16.22 |
| 09-12 16:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | BUY | 0.3699999937 | $10.55 |
| 09-12 16:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | SELL | 0.56 | $11.41 |
| 09-12 16:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | BUY | 0.4699999936 | $9.58 |
| 09-12 16:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET | SELL | 0.58 | $10.24 |