0xa2473e3bb505D7BaA607e6a52cA4970855f5ad8d-1781948531740
0xa2473e3bb505d7baa607e6a52ca4970855f5ad8d
- Realised P&L
- $1.03
- Volume
- $43.11
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $8.85
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Clay Jenkins win the 2026 Dallas County Judge election? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.875 | $8.85 | −$0.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.85at 0.630Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?
- +$0.62at 0.186Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.10at 0.280Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
- +$-1.09at 0.181Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-08 00:39 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 07-02 05:08 | Will Clay Jenkins win the 2026 Dallas County Judge election? | BUY | 0.919999906 | $4.70 |
| 07-02 05:07 | Will Clay Jenkins win the 2026 Dallas County Judge election? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.60 |
| 07-02 03:15 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $1.40 |
| 07-02 01:44 | Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? | BUY | 0.63 | $3.15 |
| 07-01 02:34 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.181 | $1.09 |
| 06-30 07:47 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.289 | $1.73 |
| 06-24 08:41 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.186 | $1.12 |